The average number of cases in September is 280 against 91 in May, warns Dr. Baeza Bacab
The third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has not only lasted in Yucatan but, according to statistics, is uncontrolled and even seems to be getting worse, warned doctor Manuel Baeza Bacab, a specialist in clinical immunology and allergies.
The specialist was interviewed about the recent partial elimination of restrictions on nighttime vehicular mobility, the extension of business hours, and the reopening of sports units, which began last Monday 20.
Baeza Bacab recalled that September brought the end of the holidays and the resumption of face-to-face classes in some schools, although with low attendance due to distrust of parents.
“They recently announced that in October they will eliminate the mobility restrictions imposed by the epidemiological orange traffic light in the state since June.”
“We are still in orange but without restrictions”
“However, we are still in orange but now without restrictions, ” he added.
“As we forecast, the numbers of the pandemic remain uncontrolled during September,” he stressed.
“According to figures from local health authorities, in the first three weeks, 5,879 new cases were detected, which is equivalent to 280 daily, while in all of August there were 7,356, equivalent to 237 per day.”
There would be more cases in September than in August
“If the trend continues at the end of September we will have more cases than the previous month,” he warned.
“We know that hospitalizations rise when cases increase so that when hospitalized patients fell in early August they reached their lowest number in the third wave: 233.”
“However, from that moment on they increased again, reaching 279 hospitalizations on September 21,” he explained.
“If we compare it with the 136 internees that were in mid-May, it shows us a noticeable increase.”
The death toll is lower, “but unacceptable”
The specialist indicated that the third numeral is the number of deaths.
“In this third wave, mortality is lower than in the summer wave of 2020, but the figure is still unacceptable.”
“In the 113 days of this relapse, 1,592 people died, which represents 14 deaths per day for a single reason: Covid -19,” he continued.
” It is obvious that there is still no control because cases and deaths remain high,” he said.
“There are several factors that seem to cause it and all point to activities without adequate protection measures. that are motivated by economic, health, school and mainly social mobility.”
Two types of factors influence the wave of Covid
He mentioned that there are long-lasting factors, “such as the imperative return to school”, and of short duration but with great significance, such as some sports activities.
He warned that the risk of lifting the nighttime vehicle restriction and favoring social mobility is the same that has existed for some time: increasing the number of cases.
He recalled that the values we had in May have not yet returned (on average 91 cases per day against 280 in September).
This means that hospitalizations and deaths are not in the values prior to this third wave (145 cases and 6 deaths on average per day in May against 187 and 16, respectively, in September).
The advancement of vaccination in Yucatán
Dr. Baeza recognizes that although vaccination against Covid-19 is progressing at a good pace in the State, the majority of Yucatecans do not have a complete scheme.
He pointed out that federal health authorities estimate that 32.7% of the population is already fully vaccinated.
That is, he added, we are still far from herd immunity, which at this point in the pandemic is considered 80%.
We must insist that the only way to avoid the disease is through immunization, as there is still no effective treatment, he emphasized.
He recalled that according to the vaccine used, the infection prevention rate varies between 65 and 95%.
However, he clarified, the prevention of serious forms, hospitalization and death, in general, is around 90%, but these values can decrease with the Delta variant.
Expect cases to increase
On the other hand, the specialist warned that by eliminating mobility restriction measures, it is to be expected that Covid cases will increase, since community transmission is still high.
” Society must be aware that despite having their complete vaccination scheme they can be infected with Covid and could transmit the disease even if they are asymptomatic.”
“That the risk of infection is higher in those who have only received one dose , but the risk is much higher in the unvaccinated of any age.”
The specialist calls on people to take care of themselves
He recalled that the country has not yet vaccinated children under 18 years of age, despite the fact that Cofepris approved since June 24 the use of Pfizer-BioNTech for adolescents from 12 years of age.
“Taking these considerations into account, it is of paramount importance to continue with the protection measures that we recommend from the beginning of the pandemic:
” Use of face masks, except in small children and adults who cannot use it, healthy distance and hygienic measures, such as frequent hand washing,” he stressed.
” Taking care of your health is protecting your family, ” he stressed.
Written by Joaquín Chan Caamal
Joaquín Orlando Chan Caamal, a reporter for the Megamedia Information Agency (AIM); He has been a journalist since 1987 and in 1993 he joined Diario de Yucatán, the flagship of Grupo Megamedia. Write about the local and peninsular sphere. He has developed content on education, economy, environment, business sectors and security and police.