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For this Saturday, heavy to intense rainfall is expected in 10 states across Mexico, along with intense heat affecting most of the country.

- May 18, 2024

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) explains that the precipitation is caused by a low-pressure system over the eastern, central, and southeastern parts of the country, combined with instability at higher atmospheric levels. Additionally, a low-pressure area with potential for cyclonic development and an unstable zone south of Guerrero and Oaxaca contribute to the weather conditions.

Specifically, intense rainfall (75 to 150 mm) is expected in Chiapas and Oaxaca, very heavy rainfall in Tabasco, and heavy rainfall in Campeche, Mexico City, the State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Puebla, Tlaxcala, and the southern part of Veracruz. There will also be scattered showers in Guanajuato, Guerrero, Morelos, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Tamaulipas, as well as isolated rain in Michoacán and Yucatán.

Furthermore, an out-of-season frontal system will extend over the northeastern part of the country, causing showers (5 to 25 mm) in Nuevo León and Tamaulipas. This weather phenomenon is expected to move over the northern Gulf of Mexico during Sunday morning, no longer affecting the country.

The SMN warns that the most intense precipitation on both days may include thunderstorms, hail, localized flooding, and increased river and stream levels, potentially leading to overflow, landslides, and inundations.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, intense heat will impact much of the country. Temperatures are forecasted to exceed 45 degrees Celsius in Campeche, Guerrero, Michoacán, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Yucatán. Other regions will experience temperatures between 40 and 45 degrees Celsius, including Chiapas, Coahuila, northern Hidalgo, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Sonora, and Tamaulipas. Meanwhile, areas like Mexico City and Tlaxcala will see temperatures between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius.

In contrast, minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 degrees Celsius are estimated in mountainous regions of Chihuahua, Durango, and the State of Mexico.

To cope with the high temperatures, the SMN advises the population to avoid prolonged exposure to sunlight, stay hydrated, and pay special attention to chronically ill individuals, children, and the elderly. Staying informed about weather conditions and following guidance from health sector personnel and civil protection authorities is crucial.

Additionally, strong winds are expected. A “Surada” wind pattern with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h is anticipated in Campeche, Chiapas, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Quintana Roo, the southern part of Veracruz, and Yucatán. Possible dust storms may occur in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, and Zacatecas. Tabasco will experience gusts of 40 to 60 km/h, with potential dust storms in Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Mexico City, Durango, the State of Mexico, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, Querétaro, Sonora, Tamaulipas, and Tlaxcala.

Source: SMN