As Tropical Storm Alberto begins to move away from the Yucatan Peninsula, residents are advised to prepare for another round of heavy rainfall and strong winds due to a new low-pressure system that is expected to develop in the Bay of Campeche.
According to Juan Antonio Palma Solís, coordinator of Meteored, Alberto will make landfall as a tropical storm on the border of Tamaulipas and Veracruz tomorrow morning. However, the influence of Alberto will soon end, but the Central American Gyre will persist over the region, inducing a new disturbance that will move southward into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
While this new system is not expected to directly affect the Yucatan Peninsula, it will still bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the area. “The position of the system will allow the Yucatan Peninsula to be in the convergence zone of humidity bands from the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, so rain will continue for the rest of the week,” said Palma Solís.
Residents can expect intense rains (75-100 mm) scattered throughout Quintana Roo, and very strong rains (50-75 mm) in Tabasco. These accumulated rainfall amounts could lead to severe flooding and inundation in vulnerable areas, making it essential to follow authorities’ recommendations.
In addition to the rain, winds of 20-50 km/h will affect the Yucatan Peninsula starting from Thursday, with gusts reaching up to 60 km/h at sea due to a pressure gradient between a persistent high-pressure system over northeastern United States and the new tropical system, which could develop into Tropical Storm Beryl.
Despite the rain, Palma Solís notes that the constant presence of clouds will prevent intense heat from returning to the region. Temperatures are expected to range from 28-34°C in Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco, and 26-30°C in Quintana Roo over the next few days.
By next week, rain intensity and distribution are expected to decrease, but this does not mean they will stop completely. Instead, a train of tropical waves may initiate, combined with the persistent arrival of maritime tropical air, which could maintain the probability of precipitation in the region.
The Yucatan State Civil Protection Agency (PROCIVY) has confirmed that Alberto is no longer a threat to the state and that new rains are expected from a low-pressure system located off the coast of Campeche. The agency advises residents to take precautions ahead of the intense rainfall forecast for Friday morning through Sunday evening, with winds reaching up to 60 km/h.
The Mexican National Weather Service (SMN) has also confirmed that a monsoon will extend over southeastern and southern Mexico, interacting with a zone of low pressure with potential cyclonic development in the Gulf of Mexico. For Saturday, heavy rainfall with occasional very heavy rain (50-75 mm) is expected in Campeche, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo, along with winds reaching up to 40 km/h and maximum temperatures of 30-35°C.
For Sunday, very heavy rainfall with occasional intense rain (75-150 mm), winds reaching up to 40 km/h, and waves of 1-2 meters in height are expected on the coasts of Yucatan and Quintana Roo. Residents are advised to remain informed about the stages of the cyclonic semaforo and weather conditions through official channels.
